Spearate each Disc

Conditional Probability

Discussion 2 Instructor Comments:

The Monty Hall Problem is interesting, because the results are counterintuitive. Watch the video and then try to figure out the math. Don’t go to a site that gives you the finished formula—that’s just not interesting. Try to do it yourself. Don’t worry about grades here—I give full credit if your post a good effort discussion and two replies during the discussion period.

In §4.4 we are introduced to the concept of conditional probability. The notation P(A | B) denotes the probability of event A occurring given that we know event B has occurred.

Now consider the Monty Hall Problem introduced in the following video:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

After watching this video, we know that if we are given the option to switch doors that, probabilistically speaking, it is in our best interest to switch.
Explain why this is the case using your knowledge of conditional probability.

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